The Data Refinery

This is what it is

At the heart of the Transition Compass™ lies the Data Refinery, a set of  self-learning mathematical algorithms that determine the key factors affecting the success, failure and recovery of your startup or startup portfolio and to respond quickly. The algorithms are unique, interactive and able to process specific organizational variables, in the absence of others.



The traditional mathematical instruments of choice use ‘least squares’ algorithms to ‘reverse engineer’ outcomes to underlying factors. Unfortunately, these types of algorithms possess a fatal flaw connecting success or failure in new ventures to the underlying factors. ‘Least squares’ allows for negative amounts of these factors! Imagine the recipe for pizza allowing for negative amounts of ingredients: 1 crust + 2 cups of toppings - 20 minutes in the oven yields 1 pizza……


Fortunately, there is another type of mathematical instruments that does not. At XSeed Technologies, we have developed this type into a proprietary set of algorithms, specifically fit to determine the causes behind the success, failure and recovery of new ventures. This proprietary set is the beating heart of our unique Data Refinery.


The NOT so usual suspects

Working with these algorithms and projects has shown that:

  • There are 23 factors, we can call  ‘the usual suspects of project failure', including unclear objectives, ill-aligned stakeholders, scope creep, flimsy vendor contracts, and a lot more;
  • Individually, these factors account for never more than 25% of the overruns. Never do they ALL go wrong at the same time; 
  • The lion share of failure and overruns is caused by persevering interactions between small clusters of these factors;
  • Mitigating individual factors has no effect. Cutting the connections between the clusters does, but requires novel forms of mitigating measures
  • The composition of these clusters also differs by industry, project type and by life cycle stage.



Enterprises are unique. So are projects and programs. That’s why we provide the possibility to incorporate your own unique choice of  variables into the refinery.

This is how it works

Step 1. Click on the ‘Transition Compass SaaS’ button

Easy does it!


Step 2. Fill out the select set of questions

This select set will provide you with an analysis of the key factors of success, failure and recovery, their interrelatedness in every stage of development and what you can do about them. You will be able to predict early in the process the project's likelihood of survival.


Step 3. Have some patience

The self-learning algorithms determine the impact of factors on your project's success and failure.


Step 4. Receive your online analysis

Receive online a comprehensive, coherent and cohesive analysis that describes how of the underlying factors, individually and collectively, are  driving your performance.


Step 5. Act

Now it is your turn again.  Make your decision how to move forward, or whether the time has come to 'pull the plug'....  

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